🪓 Miner Details
Market Meditations | November 29, 2022
Top, middle or bottom? Can anyone ever accurately call whether the Bitcoin price has reached a definitive turning point? Probably not; but that doesn’t stop people trying.
- In the wake of the Luna, 3AC and FTX blowups this year, people are wondering whether there’s anything left to flush out of the market.
- Famed on-chain preacher Willy Woo recently posted a series of three charts. Despite a disclaimer, the charts suggest a macro bottom based on:
- A floor increase due to the sale of old coins
- A majority of underwater coins
- The ratio of Market Value to Realised Ratio
- There are, however, opposing views that Bitcoin isn’t done dropping just yet, and point to the miners.
- When mining for Bitcoin becomes uneconomic, the miners switch off their equipment (and sell their BTC). Hash rate and mining difficulty have been steadily dropping since mid-November.
- Charles Edwards pointed out that the hash ribbons indicator suggests a capitulation is occurring. This would be the second of the year.
- Another pointed to the fact the net position change of Bitcoin miners had dropped significantly, indicating aggressive selling.
Despite these confusing signals we can still try to hone our skills. Huge retail volume may be some time away; but if you think in percentages, even a bear market can prove profitable.
