🧘♂️Is This The Top?
Market Meditations | March 26, 2021
Dear Meditators
There’s one question we’ve all likely been asking ourselves:
? Is this the top? ?
Today, we share our technical and fundamental viewpoint on where BTC is heading ?
? And, of course, we provide our insight and analysis on the hottest crypto market events.
Read, enjoy and share with your network. Let’s all build wealth together.
MARKET BRIEFING
Crypto. If you have any position in bitcoin, you’ll want to check out our analysis below ? In other news, NFTs continue to flourish, with an NFT tied to a New York Times column selling for nearly $560,000 in ETH.
Legacy. U.S. consumer spending fell by the most in 10 months in February as a cold snap gripped many parts of the country and the boost from a second round of stimulus checks to middle and lower income households faded.
Delighted to say this article is brought to you by FTX?, you can use my link to get a discount. We have a comprehensive ? FTX tutorial ? which includes: a step by step on how to open an account, deposit and withdraw funds, place a buy or sell order and stop loss.
MARKET MEDITATION
? This section of today’s newsletter is made available to our premium community only.
This week has been ripe with panic given the recent dip in bitcoin ? Times like this it’s pertinent to zoom out and look at the bigger picture. Given this is for our premium community, I’m going to couple this with deep insight into my mindset approaching the coming week.
BITCOIN / DOLLAR
One Day
❌ We have failed to break our most important level at $60,000 and lost the 0.382 of the recent move up. This makes me far less bullish going into next week, a bias shift from the last week.
Currently we are sitting on 0.618 level confluent with psychological support a little lower at $50,000.
? The next few days will be important, a loss of $50,000 will present a short opportunity down to ~$44,000.
1️⃣Why would this present a short opportunity?
? Market structure. Notice the most recent “Higher High” has moved a 1/5 of the distance the previous did. Furthermore in the context of parabolic moves, we seldom see retracements to the 0.618 level, which also alludes to the trend cooling off.
2️⃣Is this the top?
Probably not. But I will be taking my foot off the pedal and positioning myself for consolidation or further downside ?
? Finally for fellow bulls, we’re waiting for the $58,000 and $60,000 levels to be reclaimed before getting more aggressive with our longs.
ETHEREUM NEWS & ANALYSIS
Optimism Delays its Mainnet Launch at Least until July
Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution Optimism has postponed the public launch of its mainnet ? The mainnet was scheduled to roll out this week, but it has now been postponed at least until July.
Optimism has been building an Optimistic Rollup-based Ethereum scaling solution since June 2019. The solution aims to:
1️⃣Increase Ethereum’s throughput (the number of transactions processed per second)
2️⃣Reduce its gas fees
In terms of how quickly we can expect an improvement, Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin has said that rollups are a “powerful” solution for Ethereum scaling in the “short and medium-term future (and possibly long-term as well)”. However, they are still an early-stage technology, suggesting that more work needs to be done in the years to come ⏰
CRYPTO INVESTMENTS
Chainalysis Valued at More than $2 Billion
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis announced Friday that it secured $100 million in Series D funding, tipping the company’s valuation about $2 billion ?
Chainalysis provides data analytics services for blockchain networks, offering tools to both corporations as well as various agencies across the United States ??
✅ In a broader sense, the funding round is perhaps a signal that industry investors are betting on a future in which vendors like Chainalysis play a larger role in the interactions between governments and open crypto networks like bitcoin.
PERSONAL FINANCE
How to Avoid the Trap of Sunk Costs
The sunk cost fallacy is where we spend further resources – time, effort or money – to pursue a decision, purely based on the fact that we have already spent resources on this decision. ❌
As well as improving our general decision making process, we can also use the sunk cost fallacy to avoid common mistakes in our financial lives. This includes:
Holding onto an investment simply because we have spent money on it. Whilst conviction is important, maintain mental flexibility and be ready to to change opinion based on new information.
Pursuing a career because we have already invested time and money into the required education. If you think you have better opportunities in another field, do not let an expensive education sway your decision making process.
Putting more time into a project that isn’t working. Whether this be a trading system or a business venture, investing more time simply because we do not want to admit it is not working only damages our future further.
The sunk cost fallacy can have a serious impact on our ability to make the correct decisions. Be aware of it and always make sure your decisions look into the future, not into the past. ✅
PODCAST
7 Tips to Protect your Profit
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CLICK HERE TO FOR EARLY ACCESS ?
In this episode, we explore everything you need to know about protecting your profit through risk management ?
Key Takeaways:
Trade with a plan. Emotions are far harder to deal with after entering a position. Develop a complete system from entry to exit and you will not need to make important decisions in an emotional state.
Use stop losses. Losing even 50% of your portfolio means you would have to gain 200% to break even. Do not expose yourself to unlimited risk by not using stop losses.
Limit your leverage. Using high amounts of leverage increases your risk of liquidation. Whilst it can be used to manage counterparty risk, i.e. you can put less of your funds on an exchange when trading, do not view leverage as a simple way to increase profits.
Stay on top of the market. ? Crypto markets are highly volatile and knowledge can give you a discretionary edge over those who do not know what is going on. Find reliable sources of information and keep up to date with them.
Trade with an edge. Look for setups with a clearly defined risk/reward scenario. Do not get caught up in the latest market move, instead spend your time looking for these opportunities that are still to come.
Detach yourself from unrealized profits.? If you believe unrealized profit is already yours, it becomes very difficult to deal with an adverse move. Be aware that unrealized profits do not exist until you close your position.
Take money out of your trading account. Trading crypto is only one way to make money. Limit your exposure to a single asset class and invest these gains elsewhere.
MORE MEDITATIONS
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Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision.
