🧘‍♂️If You Own Bitcoin or Ethereum…

Market Meditations | June 13, 2022

Dear Meditators

Ingredients for a perfect storm include crypto market capitalization below $1 trillion, inflation at 8.3%, Celsius pausing withdrawals citing “extreme market conditions” and the ECB announcing its first interest rate hike in 11 years.

The above are all things we experienced today and over the weekend.

This newsletter will help you face the pressure. We will explain exactly what is happening with Celsius and we’ve put together Bitcoin and Ethereum technical analysis to help you navigate the market conditions.

Today’s Meditations:

Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Ethereum Technical Analysis
What’s Happening to Celsius?!
Mastercard x NFTs

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⏰ Top Headlines

? BT-Sea of Despair

BTC/USD

Macro Structure: New lows. Extremely bearish momentum. Aggressive collapse and testing of $24,000. Expecting a retrace now back up to $26.5k-$28.5k which is an ideal range to short. $20,000 psychological level is the only support we trust and with this current momentum losing that wouldn’t surprise us.

Key Resistance: $28,500.

Key Support: $20,000.

ETH/USD

Macro Structure: We previously assumed the continuation of the downtrend and a test of the $1,400 level. However, we did not expect a complete collapse through both those levels. Extreme bearish conditions.

Key Resistance: Not enough data right now. Awaiting further price action.

Key Support: $1,000.

? Heat Gets Turned Up On Celsius

The weekend wasn’t good for Celsius. The lending platform’s CEL token sharply fell from a local high put in yesterday as Celsius froze user funds.

The Celsius Network is a platform that offers services like interest-bearing opportunities for cryptocurrency deposits and lending.
Celsius has a massive position on Lido’s staked ETH (stETH).
stETH is fully backed by ETH at a 1:1 ratio. It’s also very illiquid. Platforms like Aave and Curve Finance offer solutions by providing a place for people to deposit stETH as collateral for loans, or to earn swapping fees as liquidity providers.
At the moment, the curve pool is imbalanced, being made up of over 75% stETH, instead of the ideal 50/50 ratio. This symptom of high supply with low demand has manifested in stETH available at a discount when compared to ETH.
If Celsius needs to access the liquidity they have tied up in stETH (to honor users’ withdrawals and yield payments for example) it will prove difficult.
stETH cannot be redeemed for ETH until Ethereum’s merge is complete. In the meantime, if Celsius finds itself in dire need of liquidity to meet its users’ demands, it may have to sell its stETH in an open market at a significant discount.

Thankfully, some stability in the space still exists, as Nexo offered to buy qualifying assets from Celsius after their withdrawal freeze. There’s no way to tell how this is going to play out for Celsius Network in the end, but a worst-case scenario almost certainly concludes without a happy ending.

Get proactive! Stay informed and read up on the details here.

? Mastercard Makes NFTs Possible for Everyone

Mastercard just announced that they are allowing cardholders to buy NFTs on a couple of different marketplaces.

Mastercard is allowing cardholders to buy NFTs directly with their card. This means they will not need to own crypto to purchase an NFT.
Mastercard is partnering with several platforms, including Immutable X, Candy Digital, The Sandbox, Mintable, Spring, Nifty Gateway, and MoonPay to work on the new capabilities.
After surveying more than 35,000 people in over 40 countries, they found that 45% either have purchased an NFT or would be interested in purchasing one. This latest news makes it easier for the general public to purchase an NFT.
In this same survey, 59% said they would be more interested in crypto if backed by a reputable company. This is further proof that this news will matter in the long run.

With over 2.9 billion cards worldwide, it is hard to see how this could not have a positive impact.

Monday, 13 June

❓ FTX Delist
FTX will delist RUNE spot markets, and consider its relisting in the future after finishing RUNE mainnet integrations.
? Polygon AMA
Modularity AMA takes place on 6 June at 2PM UTC. The discussion will focus on all things blockchain scalability.

Tuesday, 14 June

‼️ Celo Demo
Celo Camp Demo Day’s competing teams present their dApps live on CrowdCast at 12PM UTC.

Wednesday, 15 June

?️ FOMC Meeting
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will brief the press following the FOMC’s two-day meeting at 3:30PM UTC.

Friday, 17 June

? Assets and Liabilities
Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S. report released at 11:15PM UTC by the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s assets include Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities purchased under large-scale asset purchase programs (LSAPs). Fed liabilities include U.S. currency in circulation and the reserves deposited by commercial banks.

? Watch

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??‍♂️✍️ Stories in this newsletter were written by Kyle F., Misael Calleja, Nick T., Max P., Kimia K., Ellen B. and Koroush AK. Graphics were produced by Ellen B.

Not financial or tax advice. The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision. See our important security disclaimers here.

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