New Long Term Altcoin #82
Market Meditations | January 22, 2021
I’m planning to make a new long term bet. I’ll even share my exact entry strategy at the end.
Dear Meditators
Something special for the weekend…
I’m planning to make a new long term bet. In today’s newsletter, our premium community will get first access to this.
✅ I’ll even share my exact entry strategy at the end.
Delighted to say this article is brought to you by FTX ?, you can use my link to get a discount. I recently used FTX to set my trailing take profit on LINK, check that out ? here!
Brazil’s Top Exchange Announces Expansion After Raising $38m ?
Brazil’s most popular exchange Mercado Bitcoin has announced a regional expansion across Latin America. Chief executive Reinaldo Rabelo said that the exchange is now ‘going to look at the other markets, like Chile, Mexico and Argentina, which have a regulatory culture closer to ours.’ The exchange also raised nearly $38 million from venture capital firms including Parallax Ventures, Evora Fund, and Banco Plural and wants to ‘create a market as developed as that of the United States.’ Read more.New Filing From Grayscale Hints at 5 More Cryptocurrency Trusts ?
Grayscale Investments is the world’s largest digital asset manager with more than $25 billion in Net Assets Under Management (AUM) currently. The new trust funds when launched will offer investors exposure to the following digital assets: Chainlink, Basic Attention Token, Decentraland, Livepeer and Tezos. However, the firm has not yet officially announced the new single-asset trust funds. Read more.Multbillion-Dolar Microstratey Are Buying the Dip ?
The Nasdaq-listed Microstrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), with over $5 billion in market cap, has bought 314 more bitcoins. CEO Michael Saylor announced Friday: “Microstrategy has purchased approximately 314 bitcoins for $10.0 million in cash in accordance with its Treasury Reserve Policy, at an average price of approximately $31,808 per bitcoin. We now hold approximately 70,784 bitcoins”. Saylor has been one of bitcoin’s most bullish proponents in the institutional space. Read more.BIS Aims For New Platform to Test CBDCs ?
Months after Bank for International Settlements (BIS) posted a job announcement requiring a “host” of blockchain experts to join BIS Innovation Hub, the international financial institution’s Innovation Hub today stated its priorities and plans for 2021. It focuses on six key areas, among which the entity has included central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) among its newly launched projects. Read more.Bitmex’s Bitcoin Balance Has Dropped More Than 60% Since March 2020 ?
Bitmex’s market share and bitcoin balance have taken a serious hit in recent months. Two major events, the March 2020 sell-off and the October 2020 lawsuits by the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC seem to have had a negative impact on the exchange. Bitmex, once the dominant derivative exchange in crypto, lost 13% of its market share in terms of open interest and their bitcoin balance sheet has declined more than 62% since March of last year. Bitmex now also has a mandatory KYC program, which also had an impact on the exchange’s web traffic. Read more.
A New Long Term Hold
1) BITCOIN / DOLLAR
4 Hour
$36,000 – Structural Level / Resistance / Psychological Level
$30,000 – Support / Psychological Level
$26,000 – Structural Level / Support
My bias remains neutral-bearish below $36,000. We expect to see sideways consolidation while altcoins outperform.
A break of $30,000 should drag altcoins down with it. $26,000 is a danger zone, I would avoid long positions across the market if we lose it.
2) ETHEREUM / DOLLAR
One Day
$1250 – Structural Level / Resistance / Psychological Level
$1000 – Structural Level / Support / Psychological Level
Ethereum is underperforming other altcoins and generally following bitcoin.
There’s only two levels I’m watching here.
$1250 needs to flip before I look for longs, thus it maintains the neutral-bearish structure we currently have.
$1000 is the danger zone to pay attention to.
3) CHAINLINK / DOLLAR
One Day
Here’s the plan.
Cautious of this bounce until a close above $21.8.
Should we get that, all overleveraged longs will have been wiped out and I expect to see new highs.
Should we close below $21, scalp shorts down to ~$18 seem probable.
4) FTT / DOLLAR
One Day
$10 – Structural Level / Resistance / Psychological Level
$8.25 – Structural Level / Support / Psychological Level
This is the newest addition to my long term crypto holdings. FTX Token (FTT) is the backbone of the FTX ecosystem.
Betting on this token is betting on Sam, after my podcast ? with him this was a no brainer.
I invest in people and firmly believe he will succeed, check out the podcast and decide for yourself.
As far as the technicals are concerned the .382 level was the previous best entry. There are 3 options for gaining exposure.
Wait for a similar retracement across your preferred time frame
Look for an entry on a breakout above $10
Passively average into to a position over the next 6 months with weekly buys
This is a high risk investment, I will only allocate a small percentage of my portfolio for now to account for this.
Find FTT on FTX, you can get a discount on your fees by using this link.
Ryan Adams: Going Bankless and The Future Of Ethereum
Ryan Sean Adams (@RyanSAdams) is the founder of Mythos Capital. He also writes a popular newsletter Bankless, where Ryan and his team provide insights into the DeFi ecosystem. Ryan also hosts the Bankless podcast with David Hoffman.
Things I learned:
The #1 opportunity in crypto is having control over your own wealth. This can be a lifeboat against authoritarian regimes and the inefficiencies of the traditional banking system.
DeFi doesn’t provide credit. All the loans and margin activity are backed by collateral, which is all transparent and viewable on-chain.
A burn mechanism might get introduced to Ethereum in 2021. EIP1559 is a proposal where a percentage of the transaction costs would get burned by the protocol. This would naturally increase Ether’s scarcity.
Eth2 will reduce Ethereum’s inflation from 4.5% to 1% in 2022.
Bitcoin is doing the hard work by getting institutional investors familiar with crypto. The step from having zero exposure to bitcoin is much bigger than also considering an Ethereum position.
CME futures launch will make it easier for institutional investors to gain exposure to Ethereum.
Don’t be overly religious about your beliefs in crypto. Any bet you take is probabilistic, not absolute.
People should figure out what kind of market participant they are.
Technical trader
Narrative trader/investor
Fundamental investor
It’s very hard to do all those three things at once. Focus on your strengths.
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Disclaimer: The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision.
