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Important levels. Important Stories.
The market is uncertain now.
There's important levels to watch.
Important stories to monitor.
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💠 Your Crypto Daily Briefing
Here’s everything you need to know about the crypto markets today:
BTC Remains Relatively Resilient Post-Fed
BTC is trading in familiar ranges despite the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. On Wednesday, the central bank brought forward projections for the first post-pandemic interest-rate hikes into 2023 (previously 2024). Fiat currencies, gold and base metals all took a relatively stronger hit.
Grayscale Brings 13 More Tokens With DeFi Focus Under Consideration
Grayscale is considering adding the following tokens to its product suite: $1INCH $BNT $CRV $ICP $KAVA $KNC $LRC $NEAR $MATIC $REN $SOL $UMA $ZRX.
Mark Cuban Hit By Iron Finance Token Crash, Calls for DeFi Regulation
Cuban invested in the $TITAN token that crashed from about $64 to near zero on Wednesday. He suggested “if you’re looking for a lesson learned, the real question is the regulatory one… there should be regulation to define what a stablecoin is and what collateralization is acceptable.”
Now that we’ve covered the fundamentals, let’s look at some charts and trading psychology 👇
💥 You, Me & BTC
Looking at the One Day, we’ve lost the 0.236 level as well as the $40k psychological support. We were hoping to bounce relatively quickly off this level. Which hasn’t quite materialised. This is slightly inducive of a less powerful follow through.
The 0.382 level is confluent with the 30 Day Moving Average and a decent spot to bounce. Decent play here with invalidation at about $35k. That being said, this would be a very aggressive play given how choppy market conditions are. Our preference at the moment would be to wait for a more decisive market structure.
Regular Market Meditators might have noticed we moved our invalidation from around $36k. It is perfectly normal to widen stops (in light of new data) if you feel volatility is likely to increase before your predicted move.
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🌌 All Things ETH
Removing the $2.4k level on the ETH chart.
Getting weaker and weaker in terms of how it looks.
Key support will be around $2.1k.
Nothing too interesting here. BTC remains the most interesting asset to trade.
✨ Something Different
On the downside, $120 is an obvious and important level. Key structural support with lots of data points backing it. Another support level at $145.
On the upside, local resistance around $178 level confluent with the upside of the downward trend we have been seeing.
Lows have been increasing but we are fairly consistently much more volatile to the downside and weaker to the upside. Coupled with the fact that there is a reasonable amount of resistance to get through on the upside.
Becoming a Better Student of Life. Ready?
Today we are going to cover one of the most common and dangerous biases that traders and investors will encounter; self serving bias. This refers to our tendency to attribute positive outcomes to our own behaviour but find external factors to blame for our failures.
Take trading - during the parabolic phase of the bull market, many of us attributed success to our foresight that crypto would appreciate in value over time.
However during pull backs we were quick to blame external factors such as Elon Musk’s tweets or simply being “unlucky”. This behaviour carries danger for our success in markets and in life. If we can’t see fault in our own actions we become destined to repeat our mistakes forever.
It means we do not ask “how could I have managed my risk better” or “how can I improve my trading strategy to prevent this happening again”. Research gives us several explanations for why this phenomenon occurs:
Our innate need for self enhancement and self preservation.1 That is we actively seek to protect our sense of self worth and our outward facing image to others.
The way we process information.2 We are more likely to attribute our successes to expected outcomes as opposed to unexpected outcomes. Given we do not expect failure, we do not immediately attribute it to our own actions.
With this in mind, there are several ways you can avoid falling foul of self serving bias:
Take responsibility for your actions and always think “what could I have done differently in that situation”.
Do not expect a positive outcome. As stoic philosopher Seneca wrote "expectations are the greatest impediment to living. In anticipation of tomorrow, we lose today”. If we merely expect the outcome to be one of triumph, we do not focus on doing everything we can in the moment to ensure success, after all we are already on our way!
Experience can be life’s greatest teacher but only if we learn to listen. Take responsibility for your actions, lose your expectations and you will be the perfect student.
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Not financial or tax advice. The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision. See our important security disclaimers here.
Disclosure. Some of the links we’ve included are affiliate, they give you rewards and discounts and earn us a commission. Additionally, the Market Meditator writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here.
Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction? Psychological Bulletin, 82(2), 213–225.
Shepperd, J. et al. “Exploring Causes of the Self‐serving Bias.” Social and Personality Psychology Compass 2 (2008): 895-908.