Bear Market Guide - Market Meditations

Bear Market Guide

Market Meditations | May 12, 2022

? Bear in Mind

It’s ugly out there. The crypto world is reeling from a huge downturn set against the backdrop of the Terra network’s struggle to stabilize. Investing is tricky in bear markets, and things are looking grizzly. Even if BTC skyrockets to $100k tomorrow, the most valuable asset will always be time. Maximising your return on investment is paramount, and we’re here to provide some guidance.

Not only are the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance networks older and more established than projects like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, but they feature sounder fundamentals and followings than most. The chart clearly shows higher resistance to falling prices among stronger projects than more questionable ones. 

1) Re-Search and Destroy

Bear markets are perfect times to spend less time obsessing over price action and more time reading. One of the biggest mistakes new investors make is outsourcing their decision-making to influencers, traders and the like. 

  • Backtest your trading strategies. This is an invaluable tool for traders, and often overlooked.
  • If a project still sees respectable transactions per day, relative resistance to the downward trend, or remarkably resilient community sentiment during downturns, it speaks well of its future. Conversely, the opposite could confirm weakness.
  • Study tokenomics. Scrutinising the numbers might reveal a chink in the armour that isn’t well-known. Many people love to bury their heads in the sand when they’ve hitched their wagon to a token.

Getting Started 

We’ve produced a collection of guides to make digesting ambitious topics go down a bit easier. Starting with these topics will get your foot in the door.

  1. Tokenomics
  2. Sentiment Analysis
  3. Dotcom Bubble Lessons

2) Stable Your Coins

Keeping some dry powder on the side for market bottoms is almost always a good idea.

Making that sidelined liquidity work for you is a better one. This is not a risk-free strategy! Projects have crashed before and they will crash again, but when approached responsibly, it can be one of the safest.

  • Earning yields on stablecoins is one of smart money’s favorite past-times, and with good reason. Decentralised protocols like Aave feature some of the lowest risk opportunities, but doing your own research is the only safeguard against getting wrecked.
  • Some of the most reliable and competitive interest rates on BTC are offered through popular exchanges like Crypto.com and Nexo

Getting Started

  • Aave offers yields on a variety of coins and tokens. The APY is not outrageous, but trades flashy yield rates for reliability and one of the lowest risk ratings in all of decentralised finance.
  • Crypto.com and Nexo are centralised exchanges, but offer competitive yields on more than Bitcoin.

3) Passive Plays

Even if conditions make entering the market riskier than normal, there are plenty of ways to passively earn that are more promising than that “GET PAID FOR TAKING SURVEYS TODAY!!!!” email lurking in your spam box.

  • Some popular games, like League of Kingdoms and Alien Worlds, offer play-to-earn opportunities with no purchase required. Of course, these games feature enhancements at a price, but planting passive seeds may eventually grow into money trees.
  • The Brave browser pays out Basic Attention Token (BAT) just for using it. By allowing periodic (and surprisingly unobtrusive) ad pop-ups, Brave is able to compensate users.

Getting Started 

There is a common theme to these methods of weathering the storm: assume as little risk as possible while increasing your chances of earning wealth.

🧘‍♂️Bear Market Guide

Market Meditations | May 12, 2022

Dear Meditators

A rising tide sinks all boats it seems.

FUD has caused a slight de-peg in the price of USDT when compared to the US dollar.

The discrepancy in pricing has provided an arbitrage opportunity to some savvy traders. Essentially traders could potentially buy USDT cheap from exchange A and then sell it on exchange B thus profiting from the difference.

Early Thursday morning amongst the market chaos, Paolo Ardoino, the CTO of Tether and Bitfinex tweeted “reminder that tether is honouring USDt redemptions at $1”. 

He then went on to say that >300M was redeemed in the last 24 hours without any issues.

Tether and USDT have been around since 2015 and have experienced previous temporary de-pegging before returning to a stable $1 price.

This newsletter will include our bear market guide, the latest information on the UST and Terra de-peg saga as well as some important information from coinbase.

Today’s Meditations: 

  • Bear Market Guide
  • Latest UST Developments
  • Big News From Coinbase

⏰ Top Headlines


? Bear in Mind

It’s ugly out there. The crypto world is reeling from a huge downturn set against the backdrop of the Terra network’s struggle to stabilize. Investing is tricky in bear markets, and things are looking grizzly. Even if BTC skyrockets to $100k tomorrow, the most valuable asset will always be time. Maximising your return on investment is paramount, and we’re here to provide some guidance.

Not only are the Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance networks older and more established than projects like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, but they feature sounder fundamentals and followings than most. The chart clearly shows higher resistance to falling prices among stronger projects than more questionable ones. 

1) Re-Search and Destroy

Bear markets are perfect times to spend less time obsessing over price action and more time reading. One of the biggest mistakes new investors make is outsourcing their decision-making to influencers, traders and the like. 

  • Backtest your trading strategies. This is an invaluable tool for traders, and often overlooked.
  • If a project still sees respectable transactions per day, relative resistance to the downward trend, or remarkably resilient community sentiment during downturns, it speaks well of its future. Conversely, the opposite could confirm weakness.
  • Study tokenomics. Scrutinising the numbers might reveal a chink in the armour that isn’t well-known. Many people love to bury their heads in the sand when they’ve hitched their wagon to a token.

Getting Started 

We’ve produced a collection of guides to make digesting ambitious topics go down a bit easier. Starting with these topics will get your foot in the door.

  1. Tokenomics
  2. Sentiment Analysis
  3. Dotcom Bubble Lessons

2) Stable Your Coins

Keeping some dry powder on the side for market bottoms is almost always a good idea.

Making that sidelined liquidity work for you is a better one. This is not a risk-free strategy! Projects have crashed before and they will crash again, but when approached responsibly, it can be one of the safest.

  • Earning yields on stablecoins is one of smart money’s favorite past-times, and with good reason. Decentralised protocols like Aave feature some of the lowest risk opportunities, but doing your own research is the only safeguard against getting wrecked.
  • Some of the most reliable and competitive interest rates on BTC are offered through popular exchanges like Crypto.com and Nexo

Getting Started

  • Aave offers yields on a variety of coins and tokens. The APY is not outrageous, but trades flashy yield rates for reliability and one of the lowest risk ratings in all of decentralised finance.
  • Crypto.com and Nexo are centralised exchanges, but offer competitive yields on more than Bitcoin.

3) Passive Plays

Even if conditions make entering the market riskier than normal, there are plenty of ways to passively earn that are more promising than that “GET PAID FOR TAKING SURVEYS TODAY!!!!” email lurking in your spam box.

  • Some popular games, like League of Kingdoms and Alien Worlds, offer play-to-earn opportunities with no purchase required. Of course, these games feature enhancements at a price, but planting passive seeds may eventually grow into money trees.
  • The Brave browser pays out Basic Attention Token (BAT) just for using it. By allowing periodic (and surprisingly unobtrusive) ad pop-ups, Brave is able to compensate users.

Getting Started 

There is a common theme to these methods of weathering the storm: assume as little risk as possible while increasing your chances of earning wealth.


? The Big Short

Rumours are flying on Crypto Twitter about how the LUNA/UST death spiral was triggered and whether it was done on purpose. Here’s a summary of thread made by OnChainWizard:

  • By the end of March, the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) had accumulated over $1 billion in BTC to help back UST.
  • Shortly after, Terra founder Do Kwon announced ‘4pool’, a pool of four tokens (USDT, USDC, FRAX and UST) designed to dominate Curve’s stablecoin market.
  • To date the biggest stablecoin pool was 3-pool (USDT, USDC and DAI). In advance of 4pool going live, Terra started removing liquidity from the UST-3pool pairing.
  • The alleged attacker noticed an opportunity of having BTC as collateral and low token liquidity in the pool.
  • They apparently borrowed 100k BTC to build a multi-billion dollar short position and built a $1 billion UST position. When LFG removed liquidity, the attacked dumped $350 million UST for another stablecoin, sending the UST-3pool pairing seriously off-balance.
  • UST starts to de-peg slightly and LFG starts selling BTC to defend it, putting downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
  • With no Curve liquidity, the attacker started to aggressively sell the rest of their UST on Binance. This caused panic and cascading withdrawal’s from Anchor protocol, leading to a severe de-peg.
  • LFG is forced to accelerate its BTC sells and the attacker starts racking  up serious profit on their short position.

We all know what happened next. Such a move could have returned hundreds of millions in profit, maybe more if LUNA was also shorted. A power move, not for the faint-hearted. Welcome to the citadel.


? Coinbase Bankruptcy Could Wipe Out User Funds

The general public is pretty scared right now when it comes to anything having to do with cryptocurrencies. To add on, the third biggest exchange [by volume], Coinbase, said that if they go bankrupt, it may wipe out user funds. Before rushing to a conclusion, let’s get into the details!

  • Coinbase reported a quarterly loss of $430 million and a 19% drop in monthly users in their first-quarter earnings report.
  • In the event the exchange went bankrupt, users may lose all currency. In other words, Coinbase users would become “general unsecured creditors” meaning their funds would become inaccessible.
  • Users may believe the money in their account can be readily accessed and is solely under their custody. While that is correct to a degree, since users do not have private keys, the crypto is not solely accessible to them.
  • Coinbase offers a self custody wallet, “Coinbase Wallet” in which users get true access to their assets.

Coinbase holds roughly $256 billion in both fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of its customers. So should customers be scared and go pull all their money out? Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong said that the exchange had “no risk of bankruptcy,” but was instead a mere disclosure that they were required to make according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

While there are many advantages to keeping one’s crypto on a secure exchange, one of the inherent risks one takes is the bankruptcy of said exchange. For more information on protection, check out our crypto security guide here.


Twitter 

  • Going ‘To Zero’ – Panic is sweeping crypto markets, hitting the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Cardano, Solana, Terra’s Luna and Avalanche – Forbes
  • As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is everywhere due to the largest monetary tightening in history. 1/ – Raoul Pal

How stable are stablecoins?

Do you truly understand how they operate? 

What is happening to your funds when you use stablecoins?

Recent events have brought questions like these to the forefront of our minds. In tomorrow’s newsletter, we will be providing in-depth knowledge regarding major stablecoins. All the important information you need to know if you are using or thinking of using stablecoins.


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??‍♂️✍️ Stories in this newsletter were written by Misael Calleja, Kai.A, Nick T., Max P., Kimia K., Ellen B. and Koroush AK. Graphics were produced by Ellen B.


Not financial or tax advice. The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision. See our important security disclaimers here.

Disclosure. Some of the links we’ve included are affiliate, they give you rewards and discounts and earn us a commission. Additionally, the Market Meditator writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here.

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